Key Insights from Goldman Sachs Investment Banking’s 2026 Global M&A Outlook

2025 saw a surge in dealmaking—despite geopolitical uncertainty, slowing growth, and higher tariffs. Can the current wave of M&A activity continue in 2026? Think Big, Build Bigger, Goldman Sachs Investment Banking’s 2026 M&A Outlook, explains why the landscape is primed for a wave of strategic growth.

Global M&A Volumes in 2025 Hovered at All-Time Highs¹

Activity sharply accelerated after markets digested tariff announcements, as central banks cut rates, policy uncertainty moderated, valuations normalized, and markets recalibrated.

Globally, M&A volumes were up 40% year over year² and deals of more than $500 million in the Americas, EMEA, and APAC were up 74%, 150%, and 300%, respectively.³ “I wasn’t certain I would ever again experience M&A activity levels to rival those of 2021,” said Stephan Feldgoise, head of Global Mergers & Acquisition in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. “But the markets in the second half of 2025 proved me wrong, and the foundational drivers heading into 2026 remain just as robust and encouraging.”

What’s Driving the Current M&A Environment?

Several key factors have converged to fuel elevated M&A activity, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.

• AI is a key driver of an “innovation supercycle” disrupting entire sectors of the economy and broadening the aperture for strategic dealmaking. 
• Financing options are expanding across public and private markets.  
• A shifting global regulatory environment is enhancing the ability to get deals done.  
• The IPO market is experiencing a resurgence in the number of deals.  
• CEOs and boards (prompted in part by shareholders), and sponsors, have been motivated to seize this opportunity and complete transactions to acquire new capabilities with long-term strategic impact.   

How AI Is Fueling the M&A Environment

Unlike previous technology-driven transformations, AI is disrupting every industry all at once and expanding the potential for strategic M&A across sectors. Between Q1 2024 and Q3 2025, for example, leading technology companies in the US averaged $760 million per day in capital expenditures.⁴ This AI macrocurrent has created a surge in demand across software, data centers, semiconductors, real estate, power transmission, energy, and other industries.

Many corporates are choosing to acquire, rather than build. AI-related transactions are increasingly both defensive and proactive, as companies seek to insulate against disruption while positioning for sustained expansion.

“While none of us knows precisely how the AI revolution will play out, companies, boards, and shareholders are seeing the benefit of holding multiple cards to play against the opportunity and risk it presents,” said Feldgoise.

Private Markets at the Epicenter of M&A Dealmaking

Private capital has moved to the center of M&A dealmaking—redefining the art of the possible. Traditional siloed financing products are being replaced by new private capital solutions which can offer more bespoke, flexible structures and allow for larger, more complex transactions. In particular, take-private activity was up 30% YoY—further consolidating private market opportunities for investors.⁵

Private equity now represents ~40% of the M&A market, private credit continues to gain steam with expectations it will more than double by 2030, and large family offices offer new and vast pools of capital (for more on the investment decisions and allocations of institutional family offices, read our 2025 Goldman Sachs Family Office Investment Insights report Adapting to the Terrain).⁶

Additionally, General Partners who manage private equity or venture capital funds are leading secondary offerings—which hold and grow existing portfolio companies while providing liquidity to investors seeking an exit—and they have emerged as a core liquidity solution for private assets.

To learn more, visit Goldman Sachs Alternative Investments

Additional Trends Driving the M&A Landscape

Healthcare

Global M&A activity in healthcare continues, with the number of deals surging 51% YoY. Large-cap pharma companies are looking for the next breakthrough treatment to diversify their portfolios and secure enhanced capabilities, amid rising demand and rapid scientific advances.⁸

Natural Resources

Global deal volumes were up +26% YoY across the natural resources sector.⁸ This was fueled by supply-demand imbalances for essential commodities and critical minerals—paired with accelerating AI-related infrastructure investment and a growing premium for scale in an increasingly capital-intensive environment.

Industrials

A new wave of momentum in industrials saw deal volumes up +49% YoY.⁹ This was driven by energy dependency, including growing demand for electrification, energy transition, and infrastructure to support continued AI investment.

Impact of Public Activist Campaigns

Public activist campaign volumes are nearing a five-year high.¹⁰ Activism tactics expected by Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets to become more prominent in 2026 include:

• impatience with corporate “self-help” plans in favor of urgent solutions (e.g., sale processes);
• multiple activists following one another demanding their own solutions;
• emphasis on returning capital to shareholders and criticism of prior acquisitions;
• increased demand for strategic alignment, which could raise the potential for separation activity; and
• scrutiny of transactions which could alter or “break” deals.

Cross Border

Rising tariffs and a more fractured global trade environment are forcing companies to rethink how—and where—they grow. As organic expansion becomes increasingly difficult, global companies are relying on both cross-border and intra-regional moves to secure growth and strengthen competitive positioning.

Separation Activity

Global corporate separation activity was up 38% YoY.¹¹ Large-cap corporates are focused on diversifying portfolios to both examine the value of existing businesses and to generate capital for strategic growth.¹²

Risks to the M&A Environment

Potential risks that could negatively impact the M&A outlook include:

• geopolitical instability, particularly as a drag on cross-border M&A;
• the potential for financial conditions to tighten in credit markets or interest rates; and
• regulatory uncertainty.

While these risks have the potential to slow activity in 2026, they are more “idiosyncratic” than systemic, according to Feldgoise.

 

The M&A landscape for 2026 is primed for a new wave of strategic transformation. Companies are reimagining their portfolios through strategic, capability-driven acquisitions that position them for both defensive measures and innovation—reshaping industries and driving long-term growth. For investors, the current M&A landscape offers opportunities to capitalize through both public and private markets, particularly if AI innovation continues to drive increased activity across sectors. However, potential risks remain which could impact deal success and valuations. Careful consideration, in collaboration with experienced advisors, is needed for any investment to ensure alignment with individual risk tolerances and customized strategic asset allocations.

For more information, read the full 2026 M&A Outlook Think Big, Build Bigger, listen to a recent episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast What’s Driving the Surge in Deal-Making?, or contact your Goldman Sachs team.